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The Sycamore Group

 

White Paper #1

 

A Catalog of Threats to Democracy in America in 2026:

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The Grid

Michael H. Molenda, James A. Pershing, and Charles M. Reigeluth

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May 19, 2026

The grid below represents part of a larger project, a systematic analysis of deficiencies currently observed in the political system that we will label as the American Democratic Republic. That is, we are attempting to identify the gaps between the operation of a stable and productive American government and its current functioning. Analyses such as this are often phrased as examinations of “threats to democracy.” However, the US is not technically a democracy according to its founders; it is a republic based on representative democracy principles.

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The authors of the Federalist Papers and the consensus of delegates at the Constitutional Convention favored the republican form of government informed by the principles of representative democracy. Therefore, we use the label American Democratic Republic to refer to a republic like the United States of America that strives for economic growth that is widely distributed, encourages participation, and reflects the will of the majority while protecting basic individual rights of property, religion, speech, assembly, voting, citizenship, and due process.

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One of the most commonly applied measuring sticks for the health of democratic governments is the set of indices developed by the Varieties of Democracy [V-Dem] Institute based at the University of Gothenburg in Sweden. In this paper we use some of the V-Dem “indices of democracy” as convenient categories for assessing success on various dimensions of government, recognizing that these indices are neither necessary nor sufficient for measuring how well-functioning a government is. The indices—as we have adapted them to our purposes—are merely a convenient way of organizing our analysis. We refer to these indices as "facets" of government that are under threat, and they include the electoral facet, the egalitarian facet, the civil liberties facet, the communal facet, and the existential facet.

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For each facet, we divide the threats into two types: threats of a legal nature, derived from the US constitution, US laws, and Supreme Court decisions; and threats of a societal nature, derived from socio-economic forces and practices of political and other types of interest groups. Overall, the grid is intended to show the threats that are apparent in May 2026. Some of those threats are the legacy of decisions and acts made decades or centuries ago, including in the original US Constitution. Such historical factors still affect us today.

 

The chart below explains the categories of threats listed in the grid.  You can download the PDF of the chart here.​​

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1. Electoral Facet

Legal Threats

Constitution, Laws, & Court Cases

Societal Threats

Socioeconomic & Political Forces

Cultural Values & Beliefs

Access to the ballot

Free and fair elections

Participation and civic engagement

Biases and political intrusions - domestic & foreign

2. Egalitarian Facet

Equality in representation

Equal opportunities, equal access to resources

Racial and gender discrimination

Income and wealth inequality

3. Civil Liberties Facet

Rule of law enforced

Checks and balances upheld

Dark money undermining independence of judiciary

Biases of law enforcement and military

4. Communal Facet

Focused on the Common Good

Reasoned justification for decisions

Power of special interests

Individual desires above interests of the group

5. Existential Facet

Maintaining the integrity of government

Assuming the foundations are sound

Anti-democratic ideologies

Advocacy of violence

This is a work in progress, as we continue to develop a better understanding of the threats to the American Democratic Republic.​ We welcome your input.​ ​

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The grid below shows the threats that we have identified within each category.  You can download a PDF of this document here.

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The threats are discussed at greater length in a narrative document, White Paper #2, that is also part of this project. In the Grid, each threat is linked to the part of the narrative that describes it. You can see the whole narrative online here, or download it here.

 

You can find a bibliography of our sources here.​

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Finally, we gave a presentation on our work at Indiana University.  You can access the PowerPoint here.

Here is a video on
"Democracy's Vital Signs" 
 
This video is a series of interviews with elected leaders in Indiana responding to the question:
“Is our democracy under attack?” 
Follow-up questions provide additional thoughts and more specific information about how our democracy is being attacked, mostly from within our country.

The Grid

1. Electoral Facet

Participation: Voting and civic engagement

Free & fair (even-handed, not necessarily representative) elections

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A. Legal Threats

‘Baked into’ the Constitution and subsequent laws, regulations, and court cases.

  1. The Constitution stipulates that national elections be controlled by the states.  More

  2. The Shelby County decision by the Supreme Court allows states to erect barriers to voting.  More

  3. The Supreme Court tolerates gerrymandering.  More

  4. Political parties manipulate election administration at the state level.  More

  5. Political parties manipulate election administration at the federal level.  More

  6. Some states employ unverifiable voting machines.  More

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B. Societal Threats

Socio-economic factors and practices of political and other types of interest groups.

  1. Disenfranchisement is a means of racist social control.  More

  2. False claims are made of voting irregularities, undermining confidence in democracy.  More

  3. Foreign adversaries interfere with U.S. elections.  More

  4. Societal inhibitors lower voter turnout, resulting in less representative government.  More

  5. The decline of social connections reduces civic engagement and participation in democracy.  More

  6. Americans have abysmal civics knowledge, reducing civic participation, including voting.  More

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2. Egalitarian Facet

Equal representation

Equal access to power and distribution of resources

Equitable treatment regardless of sociodemographic characteristics

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A. Legal Threats

‘Baked into’ the Constitution and subsequent laws, regulations, and court cases.

  1. White males have a history of legal and financial advantages whose effects persist.  More

  2. The Electoral College subverts equal representation by advantaging rural areas.  More

  3. The original Constitution counted slaves as three-fifths of a person, creating a historical advantage for slave (rural) states that persists.  More

  4. The “Great Compromise” agreements of the 19th century gave rural states an Electoral College advantage that persists.  More

  5. The Senate filibuster often prevents the passage of popular legislation.  More

  6. Past racist federal policies created a financial handicap for non-Whites that persists.  More

  7.  National tax policies concentrate wealth and power, creating vastly unequal political influence.  More

  8. The plurality vote tallying system can distort actual voter preferences.  More

  9. Right to education was omitted from the Constitution, contributing to unequal educational opportunity.  More

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B. Societal Threats

Socio-economic factors and practices of political and other types of interest groups.

  1. White male bias, implicit in society, has led to legal and social structures that marginalize women and minorities.  More

  2. Income inequality is high and growing, increasing the frustration in the less privileged groups.  More

  3. The wealthy have always held disproportionate power and the imbalance is growing.  More

  4. Socially based misogyny and patriarchy reduce power, representation, and resources for non-whites.  More

  5. “Othering” reduces the economic and political power of women and racial and religious minorities.  More

  6. Exploitation of wedge issues encourages voting against one’s own interests.  More

  7. Crony Capitalism shifts wealth and power to the cronies of the President, heightening the gap between the connected few and the rest of society.  More

  8. “Vulture capitalism” increases the gap between haves and have-nots.  More

  9. Deindustrialization has reduced the economic and political power of the middle class.  More

  10. Demographic “hollowing out” causes rural discontent as counties lose the best of their youth, contributing to “White rural rage.  More

  11. Affordable housing shortage is creating voter hostility toward the government.  More

  12. “Gilded giving” that benefits the rich increases the tax burden of poorer people, stoking populist resentment.  More

  13. Education system “sorting” of students is increasing social distance between classes.  More

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3. Civil Liberties Facet

Rule of law enforced

Checks and balances upheld

Freedom and rights protected from government interference

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A. Legal Threats

‘Baked into’ the Constitution and subsequent laws, regulations, and court cases.

  1. Alien Enemies Act of 1789 allows abuse of human rights and due process.  More

  2. Emergency powers are highly susceptible to Presidential abuse.  More

  3. Presidential abuse of war powers.  More

  4. Recent presidential attacks on 14th Amendment civil rights—due process, equal protection, and birthright citizenship.  More

  5. Presidential abuse of executive orders in disregard of law, precedent, and democratic norms.  More

  6. Presidential abuse of pardon power.  More

  7. Abuse of prosecution power.  More

  8. National police powers have been expanded, especially through the empowerment of ICE.  More

  9. Militarization of police forces by Congress.  More

  10. Some state legislatures are suppressing First Amendment rights such as peaceful protest.  More

  11. Concentration of power in Congressional committee chairs can subvert popular will.  More

  12. Congressional stonewalling of judicial appointments.  More

  13. The Constitution provides no accountability mechanism for the Supreme Court.  More

  14. FCC repeal of the Fairness Doctrine has made broadcast media increasingly partisan.  More

  15. Unequal justice of plea deals.  More

 

B. Societal Threats

Socio-economic factors and practices of political and other types of interest groups.

  1. A secretive network of “dark money” advocacy groups has undermined the independence of the judiciary.  More

  2. Historically conservative military and law enforcement members often discriminate against marginalized groups.  More

  3. Intruders, actively supported by the government, are gaining access to private data.  More

  4. White supremacists commit vandalism and arson against Black churches to exert social control.  More

  5. “Lawfare,” the use of lawsuits to harass political opponents, uses the justice system as a weapon.  More

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4. Communal Facet

Government decisions made with deliberation that are in the best interests of the people

Collective interests vs. special interests

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A. Legal Threats

‘Baked into’ the Constitution and subsequent laws, regulations, and court cases.

  1. The Constitution intentionally made amendments difficult, privileging established interests over today’s needs.  More

  2. The Supreme Court’s Citizens United decision equates money with speech, allowing the rich to exert unchecked influence over elections and legislation.  More

  3. The Supreme Court’s McDonnell decision erased the line between “gifts” to political leaders and bribery.  More

  4. Industry-Congress co-dependency leads to decisions based on special interests rather than common good.  More

  5. Populist politicians attack universities to undermine a liberalizing influence in society.  More

  6. Superior government authorities may make rules that supersede those of lower authorities, frustrating the will of local citizens.  More

 

B. Societal Threats

Socio-economic factors and practices of political and other types of interest groups.

  1. Decline of the “free press” dilutes an informed electorate, favoring special interests.  More

  2. Corporate bias of mass media.  More

  3. Social media platforms promote disharmony, misinformation, and hate.  More

  4. Disguised propaganda creates misunderstanding and benefits special interests over the common good.  More

  5. Individualism as a political ideology downplays the common good.  More

  6. Artificial intelligence (AI) is used to generate deepfakes and other disinformation and to intimidate and control.  More

  7. Malicious foreign autocrats use “dark money” to influence elections.  More

  8. “Low information” voters –if they do vote—tend to support demagogues.  More

  9. Complacency of democracy supporters.  More

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5. Existential Facet

Integrity is upheld in governmental decision-making

Foundations of government itself are intact

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A. Legal Threats

‘Baked into’ the Constitution and subsequent laws, regulations, and court cases.

  1. The “unitary executive theory” grants the president absolute, sole authority over the entire executive branch.  More

  2. “Originalism” purports that the meaning of a constitutional provision is fixed when it is adopted, preventing interpretations suitable to modern conditions.  More

  3. The Insurrection Act of 1807 authorizes the employment of US military forces inside the US in cases of insurrection or civil disorder.  More

  4. Courts are altering the Constitution through “judicial review.”  More

  5. The Supreme Court’s Trump v. USA decision granted broad presidential immunity, giving him unchecked power.  More

  6. The Supreme Court’s Loper Bright decision switched agencies’ discretion in interpreting ambiguous federal laws and regulations from agency experts to the courts.  More

  7. Government gridlock is due to structural factors such as divided government and Senate filibuster.  More

  8. Deregulation of firearms poses mortal threats to law enforcement and peaceful civic order.  More

  9. Presidential misuse of the military increases hostility toward government by veterans and members of less privileged classes.  More

  10. Congress’s suspension of the military draft ended an institution that previously mingled people of all backgrounds, thereby making the social divisions wider and compromises more difficult.  More

  11. Advocacy by ALEC for a new, slanted Constitutional convention.  More

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B. Societal Threats

Socio-economic factors and practices of political and other types of interest groups.

  1. Authoritarians embrace the Republican Party.  Done

  2. Anti-democratic political ideologies supported by the ultra-wealthy directly attack pluralism.  More

  3. Authoritarian religious organizations stoke fear, division, and violence in the name of religion.  More

  4. Demographic fears: White minority status is becoming more imminent, provoking anxiety against the current minorities.  More

  5. Political sectarianism is sowing deep divisions, which feeds gridlock and organized extremism.  More

  6. Americans historically have displayed a general anti-government bias.  More

  7. New social media increase dis- and mis-information, undermine social integrity, and grow tribalism.  More

  8. The large and growing American militia movement is a constant threat of violence against opponents.  More

  9. Foreign autocrats and their domestic accomplices use “dark money” to influence government officials.  More

  10. Conservative attack on public education to promote privatization reduces the historical role of public schools as a social leveler.  More

  11. Lived experience leads some voters to vote against their own interests.  More

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​© Copyright 2026 by Michael H. Molenda, James A. Pershing, and Charles M. Reigeluth

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