Systematic Analysis of Threats to the
American Democratic Republic
The Grid
Michael H. Molenda, Phil Harris, James Pershing, and Charles M. Reigeluth
May 1, 2026
The grid below represents part of a larger project, a systematic analysis of deficiencies currently observed in the political system that we will label as the American Democratic Republic. That is, we are attempting to identify the gaps between the operation of a stable and productive American government and its current functioning. Analyses such as this are often phrased as examinations of “threats to democracy.” However, the US is not technically a democracy according to its founders; it is a republic based on representative democracy principles.
The authors of the Federalist Papers and the consensus of delegates at the Constitutional Convention favored the republican form of government informed by the principles of representative democracy. Therefore, we use the label American Democratic Republic to refer to a republic like the United States of America that strives for economic growth that is widely distributed, encourages participation, and reflects the will of the majority while protecting basic individual rights of property, religion, speech, assembly, voting, citizenship, and due process.
One of the most commonly applied measuring sticks for the health of democratic governments is the set of indices developed by the Varieties of Democracy [V-Dem] Institute based at the University of Gothenburg in Sweden. In this paper we use some of the V-Dem “indices of democracy” as convenient categories for assessing success on various dimensions of government, recognizing that these indices are neither necessary nor sufficient for measuring how well-functioning a government is. The indices—as we have adapted them to our purposes—are merely a convenient way of organizing our analysis. We refer to these indices as "facets" of government that are under threat, and they include the electoral facet, the egalitarian facet, the civil liberties facet, the communal facet, and the existential facet.
For each facet, we divide the threats into two types: threats of a legal nature, derived from the US constitution, US laws, and Supreme Court decisions; and threats of a societal nature, derived from socio-economic forces and practices of political and other types of interest groups. Overall, the grid is intended to show the threats that are apparent in May 2026. Some of those threats are the legacy of decisions and acts made decades or centuries ago, including in the original US Constitution. Such historical factors still affect us today.
The chart below explains the categories of threats listed in the grid. You can download the PDF of the chart here.
Legal Threats
Constitution, Laws, & Court Cases
Societal Threats
Socioeconomic & Political Forces
Cultural Values & Beliefs
1. Electoral Facet
Access to the ballot
Free and fair elections
Participation and civic engagement
Biases and political intrusions - domestic & foreign
2. Egalitarian Facet
Equality in representation
Equal opportunities, equal access to resources
Racial and gender discrimination
Income and wealth inequality
3. Civil Liberties Facet
Rule of law enforced
Checks and balances upheld
Dark money undermining independence of judiciary
Biases of law enforcement and military
4. Communal Facet
Focused on the Common Good
Reasoned justification for decisions
Power of special interests
Individual desires above interests of the group
5. Existential Facet
Maintaining the integrity of government
Assuming the foundations are sound
Anti-democratic ideologies
Advocacy of violence
This is a work in progress, as we continue to develop a better understanding of the threats to the American Democratic Republic. We welcome your input.
The grid below shows the threats that we have identified within each category. You can download a PDF here.
The threats are discussed at greater length in a narrative document that is also part of this project. Each threat is linked to the part of the narrative that describes it. You can see the whole narrative here, or download it here.
You can find a bibliography of our sources here.
Finally, we gave a presentation on our work at Indiana University. You can access the PowerPoint here.
Here is a video on
"Democracy's Vital Signs"
This video is a series of interviews with elected leaders in Indiana responding to the question:
“Is our democracy under attack?”
Follow-up questions provide additional thoughts and more specific information about how our democracy is being attacked, mostly from within our country.
The Grid
1. Electoral Facet
Participation: Voting and civic engagement
Free & fair (even-handed, not necessarily representative) elections
A. Legal Threats
‘Baked into’ the Constitution and subsequent laws, regulations, and court cases.
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The Constitution stipulates that national elections be controlled by the states.
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The Shelby County decision by the Supreme Court allows states to erect barriers to voting.
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The Supreme Court tolerates gerrymandering.
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Political parties manipulate election administration at the state level.
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Political parties manipulate election administration at the federal level.
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Some states employ unverifiable voting machines.
B. Societal Threats
Socio-economic factors and practices of political and other types of interest groups.
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Disenfranchisement is a means of racist social control.
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False claims are made of voting irregularities, undermining confidence in democracy.
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Foreign adversaries interfere with U.S. elections.
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Legal and societal inhibitors lower voter turnout, resulting in less representative government.
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The decline of social connections reduces civic engagement and participation in democracy.
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Americans have abysmal civics knowledge, reducing civic participation, including voting.
2. Egalitarian Facet
Equal representation
Equal access to power and distribution of resources
Equitable treatment regardless of sociodemographic characteristics
A. Legal Threats
‘Baked into’ the Constitution and subsequent laws, regulations, and court cases.
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White males have a history of legal and financial advantages whose effects persist.
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The Electoral College subverts equal representation will by advantaging rural areas.
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The original Constitution counted slaves as three-fifths of a person, creating a historical advantage for slave (rural) states that persists.
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The “Great Compromise” agreements of the 19th century gave rural states an Electoral College advantage that persists.
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The Senate filibuster often prevents the passage of popular legislation.
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Racist federal policies created a financial handicap for non-Whites that persists.
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National tax policies concentrate wealth and power, creating vastly unequal political influence.
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The plurality vote tallying system can distort actual voter preferences.
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Right to education was omitted from the Constitution, contributing to unequal educational opportunity.
B. Societal Threats
Socio-economic factors and practices of political and other types of interest groups.
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White male bias, implicit in society, has led to legal and social structures that marginalize women and minorities.
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Income inequality is high and growing, increasing the frustration of the less privileged groups.
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The wealthy have always held disproportionate power and the imbalance is growing.
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Race discrimination has historically reduced minorities’ access to power and resources.
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Misogyny and patriarchy create a social hierarchy that subordinates women to men.
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Crony Capitalism shifts wealth and power to the cronies of the President, heightening the gap between the connected few and the rest of society.
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Deindustrialization has reduced the economic and political power of the middle class.
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Rural demographic “hollowing out” raises the fears of rural people, contributing to “White rural rage.”
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“Othering” pushes women and racial and religious minorities into a subordinate class with reduced political influence.
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Exploitation of wedge issues encourages voting against one’s own interests.
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A shortage of affordable housing creates hostility toward the government.
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“Gilded giving”—dependence on billionaire philanthropists—increases the tax burden of poorer people, stoking populist resentment.
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Sorting in the US education system increases the social distance between classes.
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“Vulture capitalism” increases the gap between haves and have-nots.
3. Civil Liberties Facet
Rule of law enforced
Checks and balances upheld
Freedom and rights protected from government interference
A. Legal Threats
‘Baked into’ the Constitution and subsequent laws, regulations, and court cases.
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Alien Enemies Act of 1789 allows abuse of human rights and due process.
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Emergency powers are highly susceptible to Presidential abuse.
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Presidential abuse of war powers.
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Recent presidential attacks on 14th Amendment civil rights—due process, equal protection, and birthright citizenship.
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Presidential abuse of executive orders in disregard of law, precedent, and democratic norms.
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Presidential abuse of pardon power.
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Abuse of prosecution power.
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National police powers have been expanded, especially through the empowerment of ICE.
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Militarization of police forces by Congress.
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Some state legislatures are suppressing peaceful protests.
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Congressional concentration of power in committee chairs can subvert popular will.
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Legislators stonewall judicial appointments.
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The Constitution provides no accountability mechanism for the Supreme Court.
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FCC repeal of the Fairness Doctrine has made broadcast media increasingly partisan.
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Unequal justice of plea deals.
B. Societal Threats
Socio-economic factors and practices of political and other types of interest groups.
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A secretive network of “dark money” advocacy groups has undermined the independence of the judiciary.
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Historically conservative military and law enforcement members often discriminate against marginalized groups.
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Intruders, actively supported by the government, are gaining access to private data.
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White supremacists commit vandalism and arson against Black churches to exert social control.
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“Lawfare,” the use of lawsuits to harass political opponents, uses the justice system as a weapon.
4. Communal Facet
Government decisions made with deliberation that are in the best interests of the people
Collective interests vs. special interests
A. Legal Threats
‘Baked into’ the Constitution and subsequent laws, regulations, and court cases.
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The Supreme Court’s Citizens United decision equates money with speech, allowing the rich to exert unchecked influence over elections and legislation.
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The Supreme Court’s McDonnell decision erased the line between “gifts” to political leaders and bribery.
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Industry-Congress co-dependency leads to decisions based on special interests rather than common good.
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Populist politicians attack universities to undermine a liberalizing influence in society.
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The Constitution intentionally made amendments difficult, privileging established interests over today’s needs.
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Superior government authorities may make rules that supersede those of lower authorities, frustrating the will of local citizens.
B. Societal Threats
Socio-economic factors and practices of political and other types of interest groups.
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Lobbyists overwhelm congressional deliberations.
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Decline of the “free press” dilutes an informed electorate, favoring special interests.
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Corporate bias of mass media.
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Social media platforms promote disharmony and misinformation.
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Individualism as a political ideology downplays “the common good”
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Wealthy individuals and corporations pour dark money into special-interest campaigns.
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“Low information” voters –if they do vote—tend to support demagogues.
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Complacency of democracy supporters.
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“Wokeism,” advocacy for minority rights, triggers reactivity of straight White people.
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Prejudicial rhetoric provokes conflict.
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American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC) is a Trojan Horse for Corporate Interests.
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Artificial intelligence (AI) technologies generate deepfakes and other disinformation.
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Malicious foreign autocrats use “dark money” to influence elections.
5. Existential Facet
Integrity is upheld in governmental decision-making
Foundations of government itself are intact
A. Legal Threats
‘Baked into’ the Constitution and subsequent laws, regulations, and court cases.
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The “unitary executive theory” grants the President absolute, sole authority over the entire executive branch.
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“Originalism” purports that the meaning of a constitutional provision is fixed when it is adopted, preventing interpretations suitable to modern conditions.
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Insurrection Act of 1807 authorizing the employment of US military forces inside the US in cases of insurrection or civil disorder.
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Courts altering the Constitution through “judicial review.”
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The Supreme Court’s Loper Bright decision switches interpretation of federal regulations from agency experts to the courts.
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The Supreme Court’s Trump v. USA decision granted broad Presidential immunity, giving him unchecked power.
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Government gridlock due to structural factors such as divided government and Senate filibuster.
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Deregulation of firearms poses mortal threats to law enforcement and peaceful civic order.
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Advocacy for a new, slanted Constitutional Convention.
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Congress’s suspension of the military draft ended an institution that previously mingled people of all backgrounds, thereby making the social divisions wider and compromises more difficult.
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Presidential misuse of the military increases hostility toward government by veterans and members of less privileged classes.
B. Societal Threats
Socio-economic factors and practices of political and other types of interest groups.
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Anti-democracy political ideologies supported by the ultra-wealthy directly attack pluralism.
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An unusually high proportion of Americans are right-wing authoritarians.
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The “authoritarian playbook” modeled by European autocrats offers proven guidelines for converting a democratic state to authoritarianism.
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Americans historically have displayed a general anti-government bias.
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School desegregation has triggered societal division.
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Demagogues promote sectarianism–e.g. “culture wars”–as a substitute for political debate.
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Special interest lobbying promotes political polarization and government gridlock.
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Authoritarian religious organizations stoke fear, division, and violence in the name of religion.
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Foreign autocrats use “dark money” to purchase influence with government officials.
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The large and growing American militia movement is a constant threat of violence against opponents.
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Sending false electors to the Electoral College.
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American institutions face an unprecedented decline in approval.
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Public opinion is shaped by lived experience, not objective data.
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Demographic peril: White minority status is becoming more imminent, provoking anxiety against the current minorities.
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Migration from rural areas into metropolitan centers puts (conservative) rural counties at risk of losing dominance in their state, thereby provoking political anxiety.
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The legal system alienates minorities, undercutting their trust in “the system.”
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New social media environment makes the dissemination of dis- and misinformation faster and cheaper.
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Immersion in virtual relationships rather than face-to-face relationships leads to loss of a common basis for debate.
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Entertainment dominates our media consumption and diverts public attention from real-world issues.
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American Exceptionalism impels Americans to disregard better models of democracy.
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Right-wing attack on public education to promote privatization reduces the historical role of public schools as a social leveler.
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Stochastic terrorism with lone-wolf and semi-organized attacks spreads fear, promoting the appeal of “law and order” demagogues.
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Lower-SES people, particularly in rural areas, fear falling behind other racial and economic groups, stoking “rural white rage.”
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Russian disinformation campaign degrades trust in government and fuels radicalization.
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American conservative alliances with foreign autocrats who provide models for conversion of a democracy to autocracy.
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Organized political extremism is growing, posing a threat to democratic political processes.
